St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2023-01-07 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 50.5%
STL: 49.5%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.09
STL: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
J. Allen
STL
Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA
| Stat | MTL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.869 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 3.56 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | J. Allen | 22 | 18 | 4 | 81.8% | 1.81 | 2 | -2.19 |
| STL | Jordan Binnington | 27 | 22 | 5 | 81.5% | 3.35 | 2 | -1.65 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs STL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | STL 2 - 0 MTL | STL | MTL |
| 2025-12-07 | MTL 3 - 4 STL | STL | MTL |
| 2025-03-25 | STL 6 - 1 MTL | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-26 | MTL 5 - 2 STL | MTL | STL |
| 2024-02-11 | MTL 2 - 7 STL | STL | MTL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTL | 14 | 0 | 0.94 |
| 1 | STL | 16 | 1 | 0.90 |
| 2 | MTL | 15 | 0 | 1.26 |
| 2 | STL | 4 | 1 | 0.39 |
| 3 | MTL | 8 | 2 | 1.16 |
| 3 | STL | 13 | 0 | 0.52 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3
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