Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-01-07 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 57.2%

COL: 42.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.42

COL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	46	43	3	93.5%	4.59	1	1.59
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	30	28	2	93.3%	3.77	4	1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • EDM at home vs COL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	1	0.62
1	COL	20	0	1.40
2	EDM	17	2	1.93
2	COL	15	0	1.16
3	EDM	11	0	0.64
3	COL	22	1	1.80
4	EDM	3	1	0.59
4	COL	2	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1