Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-01-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

WSH: 71.0%

CBJ: 29.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.75

CBJ: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

D. Kuemper

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	38	38	0	100.0%	3.45	2	3.45
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	19	18	1	94.7%	1.36	0	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs CBJ: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CBJ 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-12-07	WSH 2 - 0 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-11-24	WSH 5 - 1 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-10-24	CBJ 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-13	WSH 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.67
1	CBJ	18	2	1.37
2	WSH	10	0	0.32
2	CBJ	14	0	0.82
3	WSH	8	0	0.38
3	CBJ	19	0	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9