Pittsburgh Penguins at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-01-08 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

ARI: 48.0%

PIT: 52.0%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.92

PIT: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	28	24	4	85.7%	3.55	3	-0.45
PIT	C. DeSmith	24	23	1	95.8%	2.73	1	1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-01-22	ARI 5 - 2 PIT	ARI	PIT
2023-12-12	PIT 4 - 2 ARI	PIT	PIT
2023-01-08	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2022-10-13	PIT 6 - 2 ARI	PIT	ARI
2022-03-19	ARI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	10	0	0.90
1	PIT	12	1	0.96
2	ARI	18	1	1.57
2	PIT	10	1	1.35
3	ARI	7	0	0.27
3	PIT	18	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3