Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TBL: 65.8%

CBJ: 34.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.64

CBJ: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	87.5%	2.52	1	-0.48
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	46	40	6	87.0%	3.37	1	-2.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	25	0	1.29
1	CBJ	8	1	0.61
2	TBL	16	0	0.95
2	CBJ	16	0	0.78
3	TBL	14	1	1.13
3	CBJ	18	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8