Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-01-10 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 49.7%

CGY: 50.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.04

CGY: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	28	3	90.3%	2.75	1	-0.25
CGY	J. Markstrom	27	23	4	85.2%	2.69	1	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs CGY: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	STL
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	CGY
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	12	0	0.94
1	CGY	18	0	0.85
2	STL	13	1	1.11
2	CGY	21	1	1.62
3	STL	10	0	0.60
3	CGY	8	0	0.28
4	STL	1	0	0.03
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2