Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Nashville Predators

Win Probability

TOR: 61.7%

NSH: 38.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.18

NSH: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 55%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	33	32	1	97.0%	2.62	0	1.62
NSH	Juuse Saros	35	33	2	94.3%	2.90	1	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TOR at home vs NSH: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	NSH 5 - 3 TOR	NSH	NSH
2025-10-14	TOR 7 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-03-22	NSH 5 - 2 TOR	NSH	NSH
2024-12-04	TOR 3 - 2 NSH	TOR	TOR
2023-12-09	TOR 4 - 0 NSH	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	0	1.06
1	NSH	10	0	0.86
2	TOR	10	0	0.58
2	NSH	8	0	0.65
3	TOR	17	1	1.26
3	NSH	17	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 1 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8