Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-01-11 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 45.6%

WSH: 54.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.45

WSH: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 45%

PHI

C. Hart

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	29	26	3	89.7%	1.75	0	-1.25
WSH	D. Kuemper	36	31	5	86.1%	4.34	1	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PHI at home vs WSH: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	21	0	1.44
1	WSH	12	0	0.73
2	PHI	19	0	1.26
2	WSH	10	0	0.35
3	PHI	11	1	1.65
3	WSH	15	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.4 - 3.2