Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

BUF: 41.1%

WPG: 58.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.88

WPG: 3.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	27	23	4	85.2%	3.32	3	-0.68
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	41	39	2	95.1%	4.16	2	2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs WPG: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	1	1.17
1	WPG	10	0	0.43
2	BUF	22	0	1.38
2	WPG	10	0	0.41
3	BUF	20	1	1.60
3	WPG	12	3	2.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4