Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

NYI: 49.6%

MIN: 50.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.07

MIN: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	33	3	91.7%	3.99	1	0.99
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	20	19	1	95.0%	2.01	1	1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYI at home vs MIN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	MIN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MIN
2025-11-07	NYI 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	NYI
2025-04-04	NYI 3 - 1 MIN	NYI	NYI
2025-02-08	MIN 6 - 3 NYI	MIN	MIN
2024-01-15	MIN 5 - 0 NYI	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.54
1	MIN	10	0	0.43
2	NYI	14	0	0.98
2	MIN	21	0	1.42
3	NYI	7	1	0.49
3	MIN	18	1	2.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2