Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-01-12 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 50.4%

CGY: 49.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.07

CGY: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

STL

T. Greiss

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	T. Greiss	40	36	4	90.0%	3.42	2	-0.58
CGY	Dan Vladar	26	25	1	96.2%	2.62	1	1.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs CGY: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	CGY 2 - 1 STL	CGY	STL
2025-11-11	STL 3 - 2 CGY	STL	STL
2025-10-11	CGY 2 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-16	STL 4 - 1 CGY	STL	CGY
2025-01-14	STL 2 - 1 CGY	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	16	1	1.57
1	CGY	21	0	1.02
2	STL	14	0	0.70
2	CGY	18	0	1.21
3	STL	8	0	0.34
3	CGY	14	2	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3