Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-01-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 61.7%

WPG: 38.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.47

WPG: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

D. Tokarski

WPG

D. Rittich

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	D. Tokarski	40	36	4	90.0%	3.03	1	-0.97
WPG	D. Rittich	23	22	1	95.7%	1.56	1	0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PIT at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	0	0.45
1	WPG	16	1	0.90
2	PIT	9	0	0.34
2	WPG	18	0	1.32
3	PIT	11	1	0.76
3	WPG	14	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8