Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.7%

CBJ: 45.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.53

CBJ: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	25	21	4	84.0%	2.05	0	-1.95
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	28	25	3	89.3%	1.56	0	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • DET at home vs CBJ: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DET 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-12-04	CBJ 6 - 5 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-22	DET 4 - 3 CBJ	DET	DET
2025-03-01	CBJ 5 - 3 DET	CBJ	DET
2025-02-27	DET 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DET

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DET	11	0.42
1	CBJ	17	0.88
2	DET	11	0.67
2	CBJ	12	0.84
3	DET	13	0.47
3	CBJ	6	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0