Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2023-01-14 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 7 - 0 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 63.4%
OTT: 36.6%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.46
OTT: 2.68
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
P. Francouz
OTT
Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | COL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.72 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | P. Francouz | 29 | 29 | 0 | 100.0% | 2.15 | 0 | 2.15 |
| OTT | Anton Forsberg | 33 | 26 | 7 | 78.8% | 3.27 | 2 | -3.73 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs OTT: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-28 | OTT 5 - 2 COL | OTT | COL |
| 2026-01-08 | COL 8 - 2 OTT | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-20 | OTT 1 - 5 COL | COL | OTT |
| 2024-10-27 | COL 5 - 4 OTT | COL | COL |
| 2024-01-16 | OTT 4 - 7 COL | COL | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COL | 18 | 1 | 0.90 |
| 1 | OTT | 13 | 0 | 0.96 |
| 2 | COL | 20 | 1 | 1.63 |
| 2 | OTT | 17 | 0 | 0.67 |
| 3 | COL | 8 | 0 | 0.74 |
| 3 | OTT | 11 | 0 | 0.52 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 63.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 7 - 0 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.5 - 2.7
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