Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-01-14 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CAR: 72.9%

PIT: 27.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.60

PIT: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	35	34	1	97.1%	3.03	2	2.03
PIT	C. DeSmith	36	34	2	94.4%	5.65	4	3.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CAR at home vs PIT: 9-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	28	1	2.59
1	PIT	16	0	0.44
2	CAR	16	0	1.11
2	PIT	11	0	0.80
3	CAR	12	3	1.94
3	PIT	23	2	1.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5