Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 6 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BOS: 59.2%

PHI: 40.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.24

PHI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	29	0	100.0%	2.38	1	2.38
PHI	C. Hart	29	23	6	79.3%	2.97	0	-3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BOS at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	0	0.87
1	PHI	12	1	0.61
2	BOS	18	0	1.57
2	PHI	9	0	0.48
3	BOS	9	0	0.53
3	PHI	23	0	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 6 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2