Anaheim Ducks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 66.7%

ANA: 33.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.92

ANA: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

C. DeSmith

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	29	26	3	89.7%	2.91	3	-0.09
ANA	John Gibson	45	41	4	91.1%	4.80	5	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs ANA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	PIT 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	PIT
2025-10-14	ANA 4 - 3 PIT	ANA	ANA
2025-01-23	ANA 5 - 1 PIT	ANA	PIT
2024-10-31	PIT 2 - 1 ANA	PIT	PIT
2023-11-07	ANA 0 - 2 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	1	1.10
1	ANA	16	3	1.43
2	PIT	20	1	1.64
2	ANA	11	0	0.80
3	PIT	21	3	1.90
3	ANA	6	0	0.54
4	PIT	1	0	0.17
4	ANA	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.7