Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-01-16 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

STL: 50.1%

OTT: 49.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.03

OTT: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

OTT

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	33	32	1	97.0%	2.56	1	1.56
OTT	C. Talbot	20	18	2	90.0%	1.73	1	-0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	STL
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	9	1	0.73
1	OTT	14	1	0.86
2	STL	7	0	0.20
2	OTT	13	0	0.69
3	STL	12	0	0.80
3	OTT	16	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3