Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-01-17 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

PHI: 68.3%

ANA: 31.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.11

ANA: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 55%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

ANA

A. Stolarz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	27	25	2	92.6%	2.48	1	0.48
ANA	A. Stolarz	39	34	5	87.2%	4.62	5	-0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • PHI at home vs ANA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	ANA 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	ANA
2026-01-06	PHI 5 - 2 ANA	PHI	PHI
2025-01-11	PHI 6 - 0 ANA	PHI	PHI
2024-12-28	ANA 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-11-10	ANA 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	24	0	1.61
1	ANA	9	0	0.35
2	PHI	18	3	1.36
2	ANA	15	1	1.09
3	PHI	14	2	1.64
3	ANA	17	0	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 4.1 - 2.8