Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 70.0%

FLA: 30.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.76

FLA: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	19	15	4	78.9%	2.05	0	-1.95
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	37	32	5	86.5%	4.91	6	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	17	3	1.88
1	FLA	9	0	0.76
2	TOR	17	2	1.58
2	FLA	11	0	0.76
3	TOR	14	1	1.25
3	FLA	8	0	0.54
4	TOR	1	0	0.20
4	FLA	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8