Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-01-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

WSH: 46.3%

MIN: 53.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.14

MIN: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	22	18	4	81.8%	1.87	1	-2.13
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	36	34	2	94.4%	3.25	1	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	0.92
1	MIN	6	0	0.15
2	WSH	15	0	1.01
2	MIN	18	0	0.58
3	WSH	24	1	1.32
3	MIN	6	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1