Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 44.9%

WPG: 55.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.80

WPG: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	25	1	96.2%	3.35	0	2.35
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	24	4	85.7%	2.82	2	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	1	1.17
1	WPG	11	0	1.09
2	MTL	14	1	1.06
2	WPG	16	0	1.14
3	MTL	9	0	0.59
3	WPG	21	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2