Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2023-01-17 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

CHI: 51.8%

BUF: 48.2%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.17

BUF: 3.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	33	30	3	90.9%	3.52	2	0.52
BUF	C. Anderson	26	22	4	84.6%	2.27	0	-1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • CHI at home vs BUF: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	CHI 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-21	BUF 9 - 3 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-27	BUF 6 - 2 CHI	BUF	BUF
2024-10-19	CHI 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-18	BUF 3 - 0 CHI	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	8	0	0.50
1	BUF	16	1	0.89
2	CHI	14	0	0.91
2	BUF	15	0	1.04
3	CHI	14	0	0.50
3	BUF	17	1	1.24
4	CHI	3	0	0.35
4	BUF	3	0	0.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.6