Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-01-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

Win Probability

OTT: 56.3%

PIT: 43.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.08

PIT: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

C. Talbot

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	19	15	4	78.9%	2.67	2	-1.33
PIT	C. DeSmith	40	35	5	87.5%	4.68	2	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • OTT at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	24	0	2.09
1	PIT	14	2	1.24
2	OTT	19	2	1.44
2	PIT	8	0	0.70
3	OTT	15	0	1.08
3	PIT	11	0	0.65
4	OTT	1	0	0.07
4	PIT	1	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1