Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-01-18 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 57.3%

BOS: 42.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.37

BOS: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	24	20	4	83.3%	1.89	1	-2.11
BOS	L. Ullmark	26	25	1	96.2%	3.01	1	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	1	1.57
1	BOS	10	0	0.43
2	NYI	13	0	0.76
2	BOS	14	0	0.66
3	NYI	12	0	0.68
3	BOS	14	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2