Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-01-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

CGY: 49.9%

COL: 50.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.28

COL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

J. Markstrom

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	31	27	4	87.1%	4.01	4	0.01
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	35	34	1	97.1%	3.04	0	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.18
1	COL	17	1	1.10
2	CGY	13	0	0.77
2	COL	17	1	0.99
3	CGY	15	0	1.08
3	COL	9	2	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9