Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2023-01-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 49.2%

DAL: 50.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.01

DAL: 3.28

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

SJS

J. Reimer

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	36	33	3	91.7%	2.24	0	-0.76
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	23	5	82.1%	3.26	1	-1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs DAL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	SJS
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.25
1	DAL	12	0	0.64
2	SJS	16	0	1.13
2	DAL	12	0	0.86
3	SJS	17	1	1.88
3	DAL	20	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 5 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3