Boston Bruins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 59.3%

BOS: 40.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.28

BOS: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	24	3	88.9%	2.83	0	-0.17
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	31	1	96.9%	3.38	3	2.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • NYR at home vs BOS: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	BOS 3 - 0 NYR	BOS	NYR
2026-01-26	NYR 4 - 3 BOS	NYR	BOS
2026-01-10	BOS 10 - 2 NYR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-28	BOS 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-05	NYR 3 - 2 BOS	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	1	0.86
1	BOS	17	0	1.49
2	NYR	16	1	1.32
2	BOS	10	0	0.64
3	NYR	17	1	1.20
3	BOS	12	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9