Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

MTL: 44.7%

FLA: 55.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.98

FLA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	40	34	6	85.0%	5.17	5	-0.83
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	25	23	2	92.0%	2.45	0	0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • MTL at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.60
1	FLA	20	2	1.32
2	MTL	11	0	1.01
2	FLA	25	2	2.81
3	MTL	12	0	0.83
3	FLA	12	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2