Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

EDM: 60.0%

TBL: 40.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.94

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 45%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	31	28	3	90.3%	3.75	3	0.75
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	29	5	85.3%	4.25	5	-0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	2	1.10
1	TBL	13	0	1.04
2	EDM	16	1	1.25
2	TBL	22	2	1.72
3	EDM	15	2	1.91
3	TBL	9	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9