Washington Capitals at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 50.4%

WSH: 49.6%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.20

WSH: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	33	29	4	87.9%	3.87	3	-0.13
WSH	D. Kuemper	26	26	0	100.0%	2.08	0	2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ARI at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-03	WSH 2 - 5 ARI	ARI	WSH
2023-12-04	ARI 6 - 0 WSH	ARI	ARI
2023-01-19	ARI 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	ARI
2022-11-05	WSH 2 - 3 ARI	ARI	WSH
2022-04-22	ARI 0 - 2 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	8	0	0.34
1	WSH	13	0	1.00
2	ARI	10	0	0.49
2	WSH	20	1	1.73
3	ARI	19	0	1.25
3	WSH	13	2	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3