Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-01-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 56.1%

DET: 43.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.54

DET: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	25	22	3	88.0%	2.18	2	-0.82
DET	Ville Husso	35	33	2	94.3%	1.72	0	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	0	0.47
1	DET	11	0	0.44
2	VGK	14	0	0.59
2	DET	15	0	0.61
3	VGK	20	0	0.65
3	DET	9	2	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0