Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-01-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

BUF: 66.6%

ANA: 33.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.68

ANA: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 74%

Over 6.5: 57%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	37	34	3	91.9%	2.78	2	-0.22
ANA	John Gibson	39	33	6	84.6%	3.34	0	-2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • BUF at home vs ANA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	ANA 6 - 5 BUF	ANA	ANA
2026-01-10	BUF 5 - 3 ANA	BUF	BUF
2025-02-25	BUF 3 - 2 ANA	BUF	BUF
2024-11-22	ANA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-02-19	BUF 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	1.31
1	ANA	14	2	1.05
2	BUF	19	0	1.06
2	ANA	22	0	1.26
3	BUF	16	0	0.97
3	ANA	13	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7