Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 47.2%

TOR: 52.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.89

TOR: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	38	36	2	94.7%	4.32	3	2.32
TOR	I. Samsonov	31	28	3	90.3%	2.88	1	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • MTL at home vs TOR: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	5	1	0.48
1	TOR	27	1	2.49
2	MTL	22	0	1.20
2	TOR	8	0	0.26
3	MTL	8	0	0.80
3	TOR	19	2	1.43
4	MTL	4	0	0.40
4	TOR	2	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4