Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-01-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

OTT: 42.7%

WPG: 57.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.00

WPG: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	30	25	5	83.3%	3.36	1	-1.64
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	26	25	1	96.2%	2.43	0	1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • OTT at home vs WPG: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	WPG
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	0	0.38
1	WPG	16	0	1.12
2	OTT	16	0	1.21
2	WPG	15	0	0.86
3	OTT	11	0	0.84
3	WPG	17	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2