Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-01-21 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 51.6%

CAR: 48.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.89

CAR: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 50%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	26	21	5	80.8%	3.39	2	-1.61
CAR	Frederik Andersen	31	29	2	93.5%	2.39	1	0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • NYI at home vs CAR: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	NYI 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	NYI
2026-04-04	CAR 4 - 3 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-10-30	CAR 6 - 2 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-03-30	CAR 6 - 4 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-01-25	NYI 3 - 2 CAR	NYI	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.62
1	CAR	16	0	0.85
2	NYI	10	0	0.54
2	CAR	18	1	1.25
3	NYI	20	1	1.22
3	CAR	13	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1