Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-01-21 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 49.2%

WSH: 50.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.08

WSH: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

L. Thompson

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	22	20	2	90.9%	1.52	0	-0.48
WSH	D. Kuemper	27	21	6	77.8%	2.72	0	-3.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	20	1.21
1	WSH	7	0.31
2	VGK	16	1.02
2	WSH	11	0.36
3	VGK	7	0.48
3	WSH	12	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0