Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-01-22 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 52.4%

WPG: 47.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.20

WPG: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

WPG

D. Rittich

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	30	25	5	83.3%	3.66	4	-1.34
WPG	D. Rittich	31	28	3	90.3%	2.52	0	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • PHI at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	WPG
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	1.15
1	WPG	12	1	0.91
2	PHI	11	0	0.76
2	WPG	19	1	1.21
3	PHI	11	0	0.61
3	WPG	13	2	1.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1