Florida Panthers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-01-23 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 49.4%

FLA: 50.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.42

FLA: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

FLA

A. Lyon

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	35	33	2	94.3%	3.24	2	1.24
FLA	A. Lyon	26	20	6	76.9%	4.47	5	-1.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • NYR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	FLA 3 - 2 NYR	FLA	FLA
2026-03-29	NYR 3 - 1 FLA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-02	FLA 1 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2025-04-14	FLA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2024-12-30	FLA 5 - 3 NYR	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.94
1	FLA	10	0	0.57
2	NYR	8	1	0.72
2	FLA	18	1	1.10
3	NYR	16	4	2.80
3	FLA	18	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1