Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-01-24 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

MTL: 40.7%

BOS: 59.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.56

BOS: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	25	4	86.2%	3.73	4	-0.27
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	22	20	2	90.9%	1.70	2	-0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.37
1	BOS	17	0	1.18
2	MTL	12	1	0.70
2	BOS	13	2	1.42
3	MTL	12	1	0.63
3	BOS	9	2	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.5