Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2023-01-24 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 47.7%

VGK: 52.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.06

VGK: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

NJD

V. Vanecek

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	30	28	2	93.3%	2.59	4	0.59
VGK	L. Thompson	36	33	3	91.7%	3.26	3	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	19	2	1.47
1	VGK	12	1	0.59
2	NJD	13	0	0.68
2	VGK	16	2	1.20
3	NJD	11	1	0.63
3	VGK	13	1	0.80
4	NJD	5	0	0.48
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2