Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-01-24 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 58.2%

BUF: 41.8%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.23

BUF: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	26	5	83.9%	5.58	5	0.58
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	25	3	89.3%	2.73	0	-0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-06	BUF 0 - 3 STL	STL	BUF
2024-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-11-14	BUF 4 - 3 STL	BUF	BUF
2024-02-10	BUF 1 - 3 STL	STL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	13	0	0.82
1	BUF	17	0	1.58
2	STL	12	0	0.94
2	BUF	13	0	0.89
3	STL	15	0	0.98
3	BUF	11	5	3.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2