Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-01-24 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 47.5%

WSH: 52.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.72

WSH: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	39	37	2	94.9%	4.04	4	2.04
WSH	D. Kuemper	26	23	3	88.5%	2.18	1	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	0	0.43
1	WSH	18	2	1.69
2	COL	17	1	1.44
2	WSH	17	2	1.35
3	COL	5	0	0.31
3	WSH	20	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1