New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-01-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 46.5%

NYI: 53.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.83

NYI: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

C. Talbot

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	36	35	1	97.2%	2.99	2	1.99
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	38	36	2	94.7%	4.82	2	2.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs NYI: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	27	0	1.52
1	NYI	15	0	0.55
2	OTT	21	0	1.12
2	NYI	18	1	1.38
3	OTT	15	2	2.18
3	NYI	19	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3