New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-01-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 New York Rangers (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 58.8%

NYR: 41.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.26

NYR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

I. Samsonov

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	27	2	93.1%	2.06	0	0.06
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	35	32	3	91.4%	3.95	4	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-25	TOR 4 - 3 NYR	TOR	NYR
2026-03-05	NYR 6 - 2 TOR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-16	TOR 2 - 1 NYR	TOR	NYR
2025-03-20	NYR 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	NYR
2025-02-28	NYR 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.94
1	NYR	18	0	1.00
2	TOR	20	3	1.83
2	NYR	12	0	0.55
3	TOR	17	0	1.00
3	NYR	12	0	0.51
4	TOR	1	0	0.18
4	NYR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9