Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 47.1%

BOS: 52.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

BOS: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	37	2	94.9%	2.77	0	0.77
BOS	L. Ullmark	35	32	3	91.4%	3.42	2	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs BOS: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.67
1	BOS	16	0	0.60
2	TBL	17	1	1.19
2	BOS	16	0	1.15
3	TBL	21	1	1.56
3	BOS	14	0	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0