Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-01-26 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 70.2%

CHI: 29.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.27

CHI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

CHI

J. Stauber

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	29	24	5	82.8%	4.76	5	-0.24
CHI	J. Stauber	35	34	1	97.1%	2.84	0	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs CHI: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	9	0	0.45
1	CHI	13	0	0.89
2	CGY	17	0	0.68
2	CHI	20	2	1.69
3	CGY	26	0	1.71
3	CHI	10	3	2.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.3 - 2.7