Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-01-27 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 47.4%

VGK: 52.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.02

VGK: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

J. Halak

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	J. Halak	34	33	1	97.1%	3.02	0	2.02
VGK	Adin Hill	40	36	4	90.0%	3.20	1	-0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	NYR 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-18	VGK 3 - 2 NYR	VGK	VGK
2025-02-02	NYR 4 - 2 VGK	NYR	VGK
2025-01-11	VGK 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	VGK
2024-01-26	NYR 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	0	1.04
1	VGK	21	0	1.28
2	NYR	16	0	0.68
2	VGK	15	0	0.90
3	NYR	22	1	1.47
3	VGK	11	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2