New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-01-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 64.1%

NJD: 35.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.25

NJD: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	26	3	89.7%	1.72	1	-1.28
NJD	V. Vanecek	35	33	2	94.3%	3.17	1	1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 10% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	NJD
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	NJD
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	0	0.90
1	NJD	7	0	0.15
2	DAL	22	1	1.77
2	NJD	14	1	1.01
3	DAL	7	0	0.50
3	NJD	13	0	0.49
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	NJD	1	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6