Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-01-27 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 58.5%

CGY: 41.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.28

CGY: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

SEA

M. Jones

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	M. Jones	38	33	5	86.8%	3.96	3	-1.04
CGY	Dan Vladar	30	28	2	93.3%	2.08	0	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SEA at home vs CGY: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	SEA 4 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-01-05	CGY 1 - 5 SEA	SEA	CGY
2025-12-18	CGY 4 - 2 SEA	CGY	CGY
2025-03-25	CGY 4 - 3 SEA	CGY	SEA
2025-02-08	CGY 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	9	0	0.35
1	CGY	23	0	1.60
2	SEA	14	0	0.81
2	CGY	17	1	0.95
3	SEA	23	0	0.93
3	CGY	10	2	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 2 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1